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Mieszko Gniezno vs Świt Skolwin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
FT
0 – 5
Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
3/13/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno11%
×Draw18%
Świt Skolwin71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mieszko Gniezno
0.78
Świt Skolwin
2.29

Świt Skolwin creates 194% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno
0.47
Świt Skolwin
1.59

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno
3.00
Świt Skolwin
1.09

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par
Świt Skolwin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Świt Skolwin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw
29%
Mieszko Gniezno or Świt Skolwin
82%
Draw or Świt Skolwin
89%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
3%
Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
54%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
18%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
4%
Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
90%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
66%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
14%
Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Świt Skolwin away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.78

Świt Skolwin attack 1.59 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more
11%
level
18%
Świt Skolwin scores more
71%

Świt Skolwin at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mieszko Gniezno vs Świt Skolwin

Świt Skolwin beat Mieszko Gniezno 5-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno in Gniezno.