Mieszko Gniezno 0–1 Starogard Gdański

Mieszko Gniezno

FT

0 – 1

Starogard Gdański

3/27/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno16%

×Draw20%

Starogard Gdański64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mieszko GnieznoExpected goals in this matchStarogard Gdański

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

2.12

Mieszko Gniezno

0.97

Starogard Gdański

2.12

Starogard Gdański creates 119% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

0.47

creates per match

1.24

3.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno

0.47

Starogard Gdański

1.24

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno

3.00

Starogard Gdański

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Starogard Gdański →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw

36%

Mieszko Gniezno or Starogard Gdański

80%

Draw or Starogard Gdański

84%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+

6%

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals

62%

Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals

25%

Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals

7%

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals

88%

Starogard Gdański 2+ goals

62%

Starogard Gdański 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)

20%

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Starogard Gdański away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.97

Starogard Gdański attack 1.24 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more

16%

level

20%

Starogard Gdański scores more

64%

Starogard Gdański at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Starogard Gdański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff