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Mieszko Gniezno vs Sokół Kleczew — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
FT
1 – 3
Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
4/25/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno15%
×Draw19%
Sokół Kleczew66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mieszko Gniezno
0.96
Sokół Kleczew
2.24

Sokół Kleczew creates 133% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno
0.47
Sokół Kleczew
1.48

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno
3.00
Sokół Kleczew
1.46

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par
Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Sokół Kleczew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw
34%
Mieszko Gniezno or Sokół Kleczew
81%
Draw or Sokół Kleczew
85%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
5%
Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
62%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
25%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
7%
Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
89%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
65%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
18%
Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Sokół Kleczew away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.46 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.48 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more
15%
level
19%
Sokół Kleczew scores more
66%

Sokół Kleczew at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mieszko Gniezno vs Sokół Kleczew

Sokół Kleczew beat Mieszko Gniezno 3-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno in Gniezno.