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Mieszko Gniezno vs Polonia Środa — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
FT
1 – 6
Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
8/22/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno14%
×Draw18%
Polonia Środa67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mieszko Gniezno
1.00
Polonia Środa
2.37

Polonia Środa creates 137% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno
0.47
Polonia Środa
1.74

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno
3.00
Polonia Środa
1.54

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par
Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Polonia Środa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw
33%
Mieszko Gniezno or Polonia Środa
82%
Draw or Polonia Środa
86%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
5%
Polonia Środa wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
63%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
26%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
8%
Polonia Środa 1+ goals
91%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
68%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
18%
Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Polonia Środa away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.54 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Polonia Środa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.00

Polonia Środa attack 1.74 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more
14%
level
18%
Polonia Środa scores more
67%

Polonia Środa at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Polonia Środa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mieszko Gniezno vs Polonia Środa

Polonia Środa beat Mieszko Gniezno 6-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno in Gniezno.