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Mieszko Gniezno vs Jarota Jarocin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
FT
0 – 2
Jarota Jarocin
Jarota Jarocin
10/10/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno17%
×Draw19%
Jarota Jarocin64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mieszko Gniezno
1.09
Jarota Jarocin
2.27

Jarota Jarocin creates 108% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno
0.47
Jarota Jarocin
1.53

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno
3.00
Jarota Jarocin
1.71

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par
Jarota Jarocin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Jarota Jarocin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw
36%
Mieszko Gniezno or Jarota Jarocin
81%
Draw or Jarota Jarocin
83%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
6%
Jarota Jarocin wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
66%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
30%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
10%
Jarota Jarocin 1+ goals
90%
Jarota Jarocin 2+ goals
66%
Jarota Jarocin 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
21%
Jarota Jarocin (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Jarota Jarocin away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Jarota Jarocin defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.09

Jarota Jarocin attack 1.53 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more
17%
level
19%
Jarota Jarocin scores more
64%

Jarota Jarocin at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jarota Jarocin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Mieszko Gniezno 0–2 Jarota Jarocin

Jarota Jarocin beat Mieszko Gniezno 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno in Gniezno.