Mieszko Gniezno 1–1 Górnik Konin: Result & Stats

Mieszko Gniezno

FT

1 – 1

Górnik Konin

10/24/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno23%

×Draw22%

Górnik Konin55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mieszko GnieznoExpected goals in this matchGórnik Konin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.91

Mieszko Gniezno

1.15

Górnik Konin

1.91

Górnik Konin creates 66% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.47

creates per match

0.82

3.00

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno

0.47

Górnik Konin

0.82

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno

3.00

Górnik Konin

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Górnik Konin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw

45%

Mieszko Gniezno or Górnik Konin

78%

Draw or Górnik Konin

77%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+

9%

Górnik Konin wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals

68%

Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals

32%

Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals

11%

Górnik Konin 1+ goals

85%

Górnik Konin 2+ goals

57%

Górnik Konin 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)

29%

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more

23%

level

22%

Górnik Konin scores more

55%

Górnik Konin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Górnik Konin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff