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Mieszko Gniezno vs Bałtyk Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
FT
2 – 2
Bałtyk Koszalin
Bałtyk Koszalin
5/8/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno18%
×Draw20%
Bałtyk Koszalin62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mieszko Gniezno
1.02
Bałtyk Koszalin
2.10

Bałtyk Koszalin creates 106% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno
0.47
Bałtyk Koszalin
1.21

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno
3.00
Bałtyk Koszalin
1.56

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par
Bałtyk Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Bałtyk Koszalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw
38%
Mieszko Gniezno or Bałtyk Koszalin
80%
Draw or Bałtyk Koszalin
82%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
6%
Bałtyk Koszalin wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
64%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
27%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
8%
Bałtyk Koszalin 1+ goals
88%
Bałtyk Koszalin 2+ goals
62%
Bałtyk Koszalin 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
22%
Bałtyk Koszalin (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Bałtyk Koszalin away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Bałtyk Koszalin defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.02

Bałtyk Koszalin attack 1.21 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more
18%
level
20%
Bałtyk Koszalin scores more
62%

Bałtyk Koszalin at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bałtyk Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Mieszko Gniezno 2–2 Bałtyk Koszalin

Mieszko Gniezno and Bałtyk Koszalin drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno in Gniezno.