Mieszko Gniezno 0–1 Bałtyk Gdynia: Result & Stats

Mieszko Gniezno

FT

0 – 1

Bałtyk Gdynia

9/5/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno24%

×Draw22%

Bałtyk Gdynia53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mieszko GnieznoExpected goals in this matchBałtyk Gdynia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.92

Mieszko Gniezno

1.23

Bałtyk Gdynia

1.92

Bałtyk Gdynia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.47

creates per match

0.84

3.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno

0.47

Bałtyk Gdynia

0.84

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno

3.00

Bałtyk Gdynia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Bałtyk Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Bałtyk Gdynia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw

47%

Mieszko Gniezno or Bałtyk Gdynia

78%

Draw or Bałtyk Gdynia

76%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+

10%

Bałtyk Gdynia wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals

71%

Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals

35%

Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals

13%

Bałtyk Gdynia 1+ goals

85%

Bałtyk Gdynia 2+ goals

57%

Bałtyk Gdynia 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)

31%

Bałtyk Gdynia (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Bałtyk Gdynia away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.00 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Bałtyk Gdynia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bałtyk Gdynia attack 0.84 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more

24%

level

22%

Bałtyk Gdynia scores more

53%

Bałtyk Gdynia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bałtyk Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff