Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Miedz Legnica vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
4/9/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 27Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Miedz Legnica51%
×Draw25%
Stomil Olsztyn24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedz Legnica
1.59
Stomil Olsztyn
1.01

Miedz Legnica creates 57% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

creates per match

Miedz Legnica
1.83
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

Miedz Legnica
1.15
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw
76%
Miedz Legnica or Stomil Olsztyn
75%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
49%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
27%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
80%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
47%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
21%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
64%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
27%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
68%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 102 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.83 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.59

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more
51%
level
25%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
24%

Miedz Legnica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Miedz Legnica 1–2 Stomil Olsztyn

Stomil Olsztyn beat Miedz Legnica 2-1 in I Liga on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.