Miedz Legnica 4–2 Stal Stalowa Wola: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Stal Stalowa Wola

I. Kaczmarski 61', 38'

W. Bogacz 18', 7'

J. Górski 80'

D. Jończy 75'

7/26/2024

I Liga · Round 2Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Miedz Legnica57%

×Draw23%

Stal Stalowa Wola21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.01

Miedz Legnica

1.84

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.01

Miedz Legnica creates 82% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

1.80

creates per match

0.88

1.14

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.80

Stal Stalowa Wola

0.88

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.14

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

79%

Miedz Legnica or Stal Stalowa Wola

77%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

43%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

33%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

84%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

55%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

28%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

64%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

27%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

73%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.80 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 0.88 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

57%

level

23%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

21%

Miedz Legnica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

18'

31'

35'

38'

45+1'

46'

A. Imiela← C. Pchełka

46'

S. Strózik← B. Pioterczak

49'

K. Antonik

53'

J. Kowalski← J. Banach

61'

I. Kaczmarski

63'

K. Drzazga← K. Drygas

63'

M. Lehaire← K. Antonik

63'

M. Mansfeld← W. Bogacz

71'

M. Grudziński← F. Hartherz

75'

D. Jończy

76'

J. Górski← K. Wojtkowski

80'

J. Górski

86'

Chuca← B. Mioč

Miedz

Stal

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽2

▼

Bogacz

Manager: I. Mamrot

63'▲K. Drzazga←▼K. Drygas

63'▲M. Lehaire←▼K. Antonik

63'▲M. Mansfeld←▼W. Bogacz

71'▲M. Grudziński←▼F. Hartherz

86'▲Chuca←▼B. Mioč

Miedz Legnica substitutes

DrzazgaLehaireMansfeldGrudzińskiChucaTrontAbramowiczSzymoniakHoogenhout

Manager: I. Pietrzykowski

45+1'▲D. Jończy←▼D. Oko

46'▲A. Imiela←▼C. Pchełka

46'▲S. Strózik←▼B. Pioterczak

53'▲J. Kowalski←▼J. Banach

76'▲J. Górski←▼K. Wojtkowski

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

JończyImielaStrózikKowalskiGórskiWilkŁąckiLelekMydlarz

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Miedz Legnica beat Stal Stalowa Wola 4-2 in I Liga on July 26, 2024.

Goals: W. Bogacz (7', 18'), I. Kaczmarski (38', 61'), D. Jończy (75'), J. Górski (80').

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.

Miedz Legnica vs Stal Stalowa Wola — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Stal Stalowa Wola