Miedz Legnica 1–2 Odra Opole: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Odra Opole

N. Mijušković 72' (pen)

R. Niziołek 50'

Borja Galán 27'

9/22/2023

I Liga · Round 9Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Miedz Legnica51%

×Draw24%

Odra Opole25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchOdra Opole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.11

Miedz Legnica

1.69

Odra Opole

1.11

Miedz Legnica creates 52% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 135 away

1.80

creates per match

1.08

1.14

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.80

Odra Opole

1.08

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.14

Odra Opole

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Odra Opole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

75%

Miedz Legnica or Odra Opole

76%

Draw or Odra Opole

49%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

27%

Odra Opole wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

82%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

50%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

24%

Odra Opole 1+ goals

67%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

30%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

67%

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.57 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.80 + Odra Opole defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

51%

level

24%

Odra Opole scores more

25%

Miedz Legnica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

D. Czaplinski

25'

27'

33'

35'

46'

46'

S. Zalewski← J. Carolina

46'

Iban Salvador← K. Antonik

50'

R. Niziołek

55'

J. Antczak

57'

T. Mikinic

59'

K. Drzazga← K. Drygas

59'

M. Mansfeld← D. Michalik

65'

M. Lehaire

66'

P. Zemlo

66'

R. Hoogenhout

67'

A. Pikk← J. Szrek

67'

M. Urbańczyk← W. Kamiński

72'

N. MijuškovićPenalty

81'

A. Pikk

83'

D. Stanclik← D. Tront

86'

D. Sula← T. Mikinič

90+1'

A. Haluch

Miedz

Odra

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Bella

46'▲S. Zalewski←▼J. Carolina

46'▲Iban Salvador←▼K. Antonik

59'▲K. Drzazga←▼K. Drygas

59'▲M. Mansfeld←▼D. Michalik

83'▲D. Stanclik←▼D. Tront

Miedz Legnica substitutes

ZalewskiSalvadorDrzazgaMansfeldStanclikGuzdekAbramowiczPierzakTarsi

Manager: A. Nocoń

67'▲A. Pikk←▼J. Szrek

67'▲M. Urbańczyk←▼W. Kamiński

86'▲D. Sula←▼T. Mikinič

Odra Opole substitutes

PikkUrbańczykSulaKalinowskiSurzynWróbelWaliśSzkliński

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Odra Opole

Odra Opole beat Miedz Legnica 2-1 in I Liga on September 22, 2023.

Goals: Borja Galán (27'), R. Niziołek (50'), N. Mijušković (72' pen).

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.

Miedz Legnica vs Odra Opole — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Odra Opole