Miedz Legnica 2–0 Motor Lublin: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Motor Lublin

N. Mijušković 66' (pen)

R. Hoogenhout 3'

4/21/2024

I Liga · Round 28Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Miedz Legnica41%

×Draw26%

Motor Lublin33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchMotor Lublin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.21

Miedz Legnica

1.37

Motor Lublin

1.21

Miedz Legnica creates 13% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 18 away

1.80

creates per match

1.28

1.14

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.80

Motor Lublin

1.28

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.14

Motor Lublin

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Motor Lublin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

67%

Miedz Legnica or Motor Lublin

74%

Draw or Motor Lublin

59%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

19%

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

75%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

40%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

16%

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

70%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

34%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

55%

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.80 + Motor Lublin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.37

Motor Lublin attack 1.28 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

41%

level

26%

Motor Lublin scores more

33%

Miedz Legnica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

S. Rudol

3'

R. Hoogenhout

45'

M. Gasior

55'

K. Drzazga← W. Bogacz

57'

K. Wojtkowski← K. Wełniak

57'

P. Szarek← S. Rudol

64'

A. Najemski

66'

N. MijuškovićPenalty

69'

M. Rybicki← A. Najemski

69'

M. Żebrakowski← S. Mráz

76'

A. Niewulis

76'

M. Lehaire← Iban Salvador

76'

S. Zalewski← K. Antonik

78'

I. Kaczmarski

82'

J. Lis← M. Król

88'

F. Luberecki

89'

P. Pierzak← I. Kaczmarski

Miedz

Motor

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Mamrot

55'▲K. Drzazga←▼W. Bogacz

76'▲M. Lehaire←▼Iban Salvador

76'▲S. Zalewski←▼K. Antonik

89'▲P. Pierzak←▼I. Kaczmarski

Miedz Legnica substitutes

DrzazgaLehaireZalewskiPierzakGuzdekLeonczykJózefiakAbramowiczMansfeld

Manager: M. Stolarski

57'▲K. Wojtkowski←▼K. Wełniak

57'▲P. Szarek←▼S. Rudol

69'▲M. Rybicki←▼A. Najemski

69'▲M. Żebrakowski←▼S. Mráz

82'▲J. Lis←▼M. Król

Motor Lublin substitutes

WojtkowskiSzarekRybickiŻebrakowskiLisWójcikPalaczScaletBudziłek