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Miedz Legnica vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2025

Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
Preview
15:00
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
9/5/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 7
Big match
55%
Miedz Legnica
model favours
55%24%21%

Miedz Legnica score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Miedz Legnica55%
×Draw24%
Chrobry Głogów21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedz Legnica
1.70
Chrobry Głogów
0.95

Miedz Legnica creates 79% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 38 away

creates per match

Miedz Legnica
1.86
Chrobry Głogów
0.89

allows per match

Miedz Legnica
1.00
Chrobry Głogów
1.53

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw
79%
Miedz Legnica or Chrobry Głogów
76%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
45%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
30%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
82%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
51%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
24%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
61%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
25%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
72%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.86 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Chrobry Głogów attack 0.89 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more
55%
level
24%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
21%

Miedz Legnica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (80% and 83% over 2.5)
  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 80% of Miedz Legnica’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Chrobry Głogów win just 22% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Legnica
WDLWL
Głogów
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Miedz Legnica face Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)

I Liga returns with Miedz Legnica hosting Chrobry Głogów. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.