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Miedź Legnica U18 vs Lech Poznań U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Miedź Legnica U18
Miedź Legnica U18
FT
2 – 5
Lech Poznań U18
Lech Poznań U18
10/30/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Miedź Legnica U1821%
×Draw19%
Lech Poznań U1860%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedź Legnica U18
1.38
Lech Poznań U18
2.44

Lech Poznań U18 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 38 away

creates per match

Miedź Legnica U18
0.88
Lech Poznań U18
2.13

allows per match

Miedź Legnica U18
2.75
Lech Poznań U18
1.87

finishing

Miedź Legnica U18+0.00on par
Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedź Legnica U18 ↓

Lech Poznań U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Miedź Legnica U18 or draw
40%
Miedź Legnica U18 or Lech Poznań U18
81%
Draw or Lech Poznań U18
79%

Winning margin

Miedź Legnica U18 wins by 2+
9%
Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Miedź Legnica U18 1+ goals
75%
Miedź Legnica U18 2+ goals
40%
Miedź Legnica U18 3+ goals
16%
Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals
91%
Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals
70%
Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Miedź Legnica U18 (draw refunded)
26%
Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedź Legnica U18 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

Lech Poznań U18 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedź Legnica U18 attack 0.88 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.13 + Miedź Legnica U18 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Miedź Legnica U18 scores more
21%
level
19%
Lech Poznań U18 scores more
60%

Lech Poznań U18 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lech Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miedź Legnica U18 vs Lech Poznań U18

Lech Poznań U18 beat Miedź Legnica U18 5-2 in Central Youth League on October 30, 2022.