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Miedź Legnica II vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Miedź Legnica II
Miedź Legnica II
FT
0 – 4
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
9/10/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Miedź Legnica II45%
×Draw22%
Raków Częstochowa II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedź Legnica II
1.86
Raków Częstochowa II
1.58

Miedź Legnica II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

Miedź Legnica II
2.02
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Miedź Legnica II
1.62
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedź Legnica II ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Miedź Legnica II or draw
67%
Miedź Legnica II or Raków Częstochowa II
78%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
55%

Winning margin

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+
24%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals
84%
Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals
55%
Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals
28%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
79%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
47%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)
57%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedź Legnica II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedź Legnica II attack 2.02 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Miedź Legnica II scores more
45%
level
22%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
33%

Miedź Legnica II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Miedź Legnica II 0–4 Raków Częstochowa II

Raków Częstochowa II beat Miedź Legnica II 4-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi in Legnica.