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Midwest United vs South Bend Lions — USL League Two 2018

Midwest United
Midwest United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
5/15/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 1Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Midwest United55%
×Draw21%
South Bend Lions25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midwest United
2.17
South Bend Lions
1.40

Midwest United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

creates per match

Midwest United
1.71
South Bend Lions
1.50

allows per match

Midwest United
1.29
South Bend Lions
2.64

finishing

Midwest United+0.00on par
South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midwest United ↓

South Bend Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Midwest United or draw
75%
Midwest United or South Bend Lions
79%
Draw or South Bend Lions
45%

Winning margin

Midwest United wins by 2+
33%
South Bend Lions wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Midwest United 1+ goals
89%
Midwest United 2+ goals
64%
Midwest United 3+ goals
36%
South Bend Lions 1+ goals
75%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
41%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Midwest United (draw refunded)
69%
South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midwest United at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midwest United attack 1.71 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.17

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Midwest United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Midwest United scores more
55%
level
21%
South Bend Lions scores more
25%

Midwest United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Midwest United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Midwest United 1–0 South Bend Lions

Midwest United beat South Bend Lions 1-0 in USL League Two on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1 in Grand Rapids, Michigan.