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Midtjylland U19 vs Rukh Vynnyky U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Midtjylland U19
Midtjylland U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rukh Vynnyky U19
Rukh Vynnyky U19
11/29/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundWunderelf Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Midtjylland U1945%
×Draw24%
Rukh Vynnyky U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midtjylland U19
1.69
Rukh Vynnyky U19
1.35

Midtjylland U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Midtjylland U19
2.77
Rukh Vynnyky U19
1.40

allows per match

Midtjylland U19
1.31
Rukh Vynnyky U19
0.60

finishing

Midtjylland U19+0.00on par
Rukh Vynnyky U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midtjylland U19 ↓

Rukh Vynnyky U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Midtjylland U19 or draw
69%
Midtjylland U19 or Rukh Vynnyky U19
76%
Draw or Rukh Vynnyky U19
55%

Winning margin

Midtjylland U19 wins by 2+
24%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Midtjylland U19 1+ goals
82%
Midtjylland U19 2+ goals
50%
Midtjylland U19 3+ goals
24%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 1+ goals
74%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 2+ goals
39%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Midtjylland U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midtjylland U19 at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Rukh Vynnyky U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midtjylland U19 attack 2.77 + Rukh Vynnyky U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rukh Vynnyky U19 attack 1.40 + Midtjylland U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Midtjylland U19 scores more
45%
level
24%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 scores more
31%

Midtjylland U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Midtjylland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Midtjylland U19 0 – 1 Rukh Vynnyky U19

Rukh Vynnyky U19 beat Midtjylland U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Wunderelf Arena in Ikast.