Midtjylland U19 1–1 RB Leipzig U19: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Midtjylland U19Expected goals in this matchRB Leipzig U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.16

Midtjylland U19

2.20

RB Leipzig U19

1.16

Midtjylland U19 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.77

creates per match

1.00

1.31

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Midtjylland U19

2.77

RB Leipzig U19

1.00

allows per match

Midtjylland U19

1.31

RB Leipzig U19

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Midtjylland U19+0.00on par

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midtjylland U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Midtjylland U19 or draw

81%

Midtjylland U19 or RB Leipzig U19

80%

Draw or RB Leipzig U19

39%

Winning margin

Midtjylland U19 wins by 2+

38%

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Midtjylland U19 1+ goals

89%

Midtjylland U19 2+ goals

64%

Midtjylland U19 3+ goals

37%

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

69%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

32%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Midtjylland U19 (draw refunded)

76%

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midtjylland U19 at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midtjylland U19 attack 2.77 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.20

RB Leipzig U19 attack 1.00 + Midtjylland U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Midtjylland U19 scores more

61%

level

20%

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

19%

Midtjylland U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Midtjylland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Krüger-Johnsen↳ S. Johannesen

19'

T. Kohler

33'

T. Meyer

46'

L. Hennig← T. Meyer

57'

M. Melin← I. Musa

59'

D. F. Kristjansson

62'

T. Kohler

62'

T. Kohler

62'

M. Kruger Johnsen

68'

W. Osawe← S. Schierack

68'

L. Schößler← N. Jatta

72'

N. Tornvig← S. Iheanacho

72'

E. Pettersen← M. Krüger-Johnsen

75'

B. Damala← C. Onuoha

75'

D. Klapija← Y. Eduardo

82'

C. Jørgensen← M. Melin

90+3'

W. Osawe

90+5'

J. Norbye↳ L. Schößler

120+1'

G. BjergeMissed penalty

120+2'

P. KühnhardtPenalty

120+3'

S. JohannesenPenalty

120+4'

B. DamalaPenalty

120+5'

D. KristjánssonMissed penalty

120+6'

L. SchößlerPenalty

120+7'

C. JørgensenPenalty

120+8'

W. OsawePenalty

Midtjylland

RB

1

Schlieck

15

▼

Meyer

13

Köhler

7

⚽

Kühnhardt

4

⚽

Norbye

8

▼

Schierack

20

▼

Onuoha

6

Lenz

17

Bayindir

21

▼

Jatta

9

▼

1

7

24

4

3

14

23

⚽A

Johannese

15

Djabi

10

⚽

▼

Krüger-Jo

12

▼

Musa

18

▼

Iheanacho

Manager: A. Jepsen

57'▲M. Melin←▼I. Musa

72'▲N. Tornvig←▼S. Iheanacho

72'▲E. Pettersen←▼M. Krüger-Johnsen

82'▲C. Jørgensen←▼M. Melin

Midtjylland U19 substitutes

11Melin8Tornvig6Pettersen17Jørgensen22Jensen16Beetson19Kristiansen

Manager: M. Baum

46'▲L. Hennig←▼T. Meyer

68'▲W. Osawe←▼S. Schierack

68'▲L. Schößler←▼N. Jatta

75'▲B. Damala←▼C. Onuoha

75'▲D. Klapija←▼Y. Eduardo

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

5Hennig18Osawe10Schößler24Damala11Klapija22Prüfrock26Böhm