Midtjylland U19 1–1 Lille U19: Result & Stats

Midtjylland U19

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lille U19

N. Madsen 14' (pen)

C. Niasse 61' (pen)

2/12/2020

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsWunderelf Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Midtjylland U1957%

×Draw21%

Lille U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Midtjylland U19Expected goals in this matchLille U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.24

Midtjylland U19

2.13

Lille U19

1.24

Midtjylland U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

2.77

creates per match

1.17

1.31

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Midtjylland U19

2.77

Lille U19

1.17

allows per match

Midtjylland U19

1.31

Lille U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Midtjylland U19+0.00on par

Lille U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midtjylland U19 ↓

Lille U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Midtjylland U19 or draw

78%

Midtjylland U19 or Lille U19

79%

Draw or Lille U19

43%

Winning margin

Midtjylland U19 wins by 2+

35%

Lille U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Midtjylland U19 1+ goals

88%

Midtjylland U19 2+ goals

63%

Midtjylland U19 3+ goals

35%

Lille U19 1+ goals

71%

Lille U19 2+ goals

35%

Lille U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Midtjylland U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Lille U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midtjylland U19 at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Lille U19 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midtjylland U19 attack 2.77 + Lille U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Lille U19 attack 1.17 + Midtjylland U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Midtjylland U19 scores more

57%

level

21%

Lille U19 scores more

22%

Midtjylland U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Midtjylland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

N. MadsenPenalty

44'

A. Camara

52'

B. Diedhiou

56'

F. Ouattara← E. Boula

60'

V. B. Thorsen

61'

C. NiassePenalty

74'

I. Bouleghcha← Y. Hamed

74'

Edson Ceita← E. Bardeli

81'

V. Lind← D. Simsir

84'

D. Nlandu

88'

P. Hannola← N. Madsen

90+4'

G. Isaksen

Midtjylland

Lille

1

Chevalier

2

Kanda

3

▼

Hamed

5

Rolland

6

Nlandu

4

⚽

Niasse

10

▼

Boula

11

▼

9

7

8

1

4

9

22

14

⚽

▼

24

11

8

10

15

12

▼

Simsir

Manager: H. Jensen

81'▲V. Lind←▼D. Simsir

88'▲P. Hannola←▼N. Madsen

Midtjylland U19 substitutes

7Lind18Hannola16Madsen23Heiselberg20Bility2Jensen3Hansen

Manager: M. Delestrez

56'▲F. Ouattara←▼E. Boula

74'▲I. Bouleghcha←▼Y. Hamed

74'▲Edson Ceita←▼E. Bardeli

Lille U19 substitutes

14Ouattara13Bouleghcha12Ceita18Mboyo16Lavallee17Mabanza15Ramet

UEFA Youth League: Midtjylland U19 1–1 Lille U19

Midtjylland U19 and Lille U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on February 12, 2020.

Goals: N. Madsen (14' pen), C. Niasse (61' pen).

The match was played at Wunderelf Arena in Ikast.

Midtjylland U19 vs Lille U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Midtjylland U19 1–1 Lille U19