Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Midtjylland U19 vs Hamilton Academical U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Midtjylland U19
Midtjylland U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hamilton Academical U19
Hamilton Academical U19
11/7/2018UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundMCH Arena (Herning)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Midtjylland U1971%
×Draw17%
Hamilton Academical U1913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midtjylland U19
2.55
Hamilton Academical U19
0.99

Midtjylland U19 creates 158% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Midtjylland U19
2.77
Hamilton Academical U19
0.67

allows per match

Midtjylland U19
1.31
Hamilton Academical U19
2.33

finishing

Midtjylland U19+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midtjylland U19 ↓

Hamilton Academical U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Midtjylland U19 or draw
87%
Midtjylland U19 or Hamilton Academical U19
83%
Draw or Hamilton Academical U19
29%

Winning margin

Midtjylland U19 wins by 2+
49%
Hamilton Academical U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Midtjylland U19 1+ goals
92%
Midtjylland U19 2+ goals
72%
Midtjylland U19 3+ goals
46%
Hamilton Academical U19 1+ goals
63%
Hamilton Academical U19 2+ goals
26%
Hamilton Academical U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Midtjylland U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Hamilton Academical U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midtjylland U19 at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Hamilton Academical U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midtjylland U19 attack 2.77 + Hamilton Academical U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.55

Hamilton Academical U19 attack 0.67 + Midtjylland U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Midtjylland U19 scores more
71%
level
17%
Hamilton Academical U19 scores more
13%

Midtjylland U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Midtjylland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Midtjylland U19 2 – 0 Hamilton Academical U19

Midtjylland U19 beat Hamilton Academical U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 7, 2018.

The match was played at MCH Arena (Herning).