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Midland vs Sportivo Italiano — Primera C 2026

Midland
Midlandadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano
11/12/2023Primera CPrimera C · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsEstadio Ferrocarril Midland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Midland43%
×Draw29%
Sportivo Italiano28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midland
1.21
Sportivo Italiano
0.91

Midland creates 33% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 95 away

creates per match

Midland
1.37
Sportivo Italiano
0.88

allows per match

Midland
0.94
Sportivo Italiano
1.04

finishing

Midland+0.00on par
Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midland ↓

Sportivo Italiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Midland or draw
72%
Midland or Sportivo Italiano
71%
Draw or Sportivo Italiano
57%

Winning margin

Midland wins by 2+
19%
Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Midland 1+ goals
70%
Midland 2+ goals
34%
Midland 3+ goals
12%
Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals
60%
Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals
23%
Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Midland (draw refunded)
61%
Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midland at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.94 · 94 matches

Sportivo Italiano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.04 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midland attack 1.37 + Sportivo Italiano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sportivo Italiano attack 0.88 + Midland defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Midland scores more
43%
level
29%
Sportivo Italiano scores more
28%

Midland at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Midland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Midland vs Sportivo Italiano

Midland beat Sportivo Italiano 1-0 in Primera C on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ferrocarril Midland in Libertad, Provincia de Buenos Aires.