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Midland vs Los Andes — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Midland
Midland
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Los Andes
Los Andes
2/9/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 2Estadio de Colegiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Midland52%
×Draw29%
Los Andes19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midland
1.31
Los Andes
0.66

Midland creates 98% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 98 away

creates per match

Midland
1.59
Los Andes
0.85

allows per match

Midland
0.46
Los Andes
1.02

finishing

Midland+0.00on par
Los Andes+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midland ↓

Los Andes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Midland or draw
81%
Midland or Los Andes
71%
Draw or Los Andes
48%

Winning margin

Midland wins by 2+
25%
Los Andes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Midland 1+ goals
73%
Midland 2+ goals
38%
Midland 3+ goals
14%
Los Andes 1+ goals
48%
Los Andes 2+ goals
14%
Los Andes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Midland (draw refunded)
74%
Los Andes (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midland at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.46 · 41 matches

Los Andes away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midland attack 1.59 + Los Andes defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Los Andes attack 0.85 + Midland defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Midland scores more
52%
level
29%
Los Andes scores more
19%

Midland at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Midland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Midland 0–1 Los Andes

Los Andes beat Midland 1-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Colegiales in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.