Midland 4–1 Dock Sud: Result & Stats | Primera C

Midland

FT

4 – 1

Dock Sud

8/20/2019

Primera C · Apertura - 4Estadio Ferrocarril Midland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Midland40%

×Draw28%

Dock Sud32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MidlandExpected goals in this matchDock Sud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Midland

1.25

Dock Sud

1.07

Midland creates 17% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 75 away

1.37

creates per match

1.20

0.94

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Midland

1.37

Dock Sud

1.20

allows per match

Midland

0.94

Dock Sud

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Midland+0.00on par

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midland ↓

Dock Sud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Midland or draw

68%

Midland or Dock Sud

72%

Draw or Dock Sud

60%

Winning margin

Midland wins by 2+

18%

Dock Sud wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Midland 1+ goals

71%

Midland 2+ goals

36%

Midland 3+ goals

13%

Dock Sud 1+ goals

66%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

29%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Midland (draw refunded)

56%

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midland at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midland attack 1.37 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + Midland defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Midland scores more

40%

level

28%

Dock Sud scores more

32%

Midland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Midland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff