Dock Sud 2–3 Midland: Result & Stats

Dock Sud

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Midland

E. Díaz 90+4' (pen)

F. Mesa 50'

J. Perales 41'

M. Roseti 28' (pen)

M. Rogoski 4'

9/7/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 13Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Dock Sud32%

×Draw32%

Midland36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dock SudExpected goals in this matchMidland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.00

Dock Sud

0.93

Midland

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 42 away

1.18

creates per match

0.95

1.06

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Dock Sud

1.18

Midland

0.95

allows per match

Dock Sud

1.06

Midland

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Midland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Midland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw

64%

Dock Sud or Midland

68%

Draw or Midland

68%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+

12%

Midland wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals

61%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

24%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

7%

Midland 1+ goals

63%

Midland 2+ goals

26%

Midland 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

47%

Midland (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

Midland away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Midland defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.93

Midland attack 0.95 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dock Sud scores more

32%

level

32%

Midland scores more

36%

Midland at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Midland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Rogoski

28'

M. RosetiPenalty

41'

J. Perales

46'

M. Guzmán← Agustín Ávalos

46'

J. González← S. Modón

50'

F. Mesa

63'

N. Violini← P. Despósito

63'

F. Garay← A. Arias

67'

E. Brizuela← S. Formichelli

78'

R. Lobo← L. Nebot

78'

L. Laborda← M. Roseti

81'

T. Villordo← F. Mesa

90'

R. Ugarriza← M. Frattini

90+4'

E. DíazPenalty

Dock

Midland

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Mesa

Manager: M. Córdoba

46'▲M. Guzmán←▼Agustín Ávalos

46'▲J. González←▼S. Modón

67'▲E. Brizuela←▼S. Formichelli

78'▲R. Lobo←▼L. Nebot

81'▲T. Villordo←▼F. Mesa

Dock Sud substitutes

GuzmánGonzálezBrizuelaLoboVillordo

Manager: J. Díaz

63'▲N. Violini←▼P. Despósito

63'▲F. Garay←▼A. Arias

78'▲L. Laborda←▼M. Roseti

90'▲R. Ugarriza←▼M. Frattini

Midland substitutes

VioliniGarayLabordaUgarriza