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Midland-Odessa vs Denver — US Open Cup 2018

Midland-Odessa
Midland-Odessa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Denver
Denver
5/9/2019US Open CupUS Open Cup · 1st RoundGrande Communications Stadium (Midland, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Midland-Odessa35%
×Draw24%
Denver42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midland-Odessa
1.50
Denver
1.67

Denver creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Midland-Odessa
1.33
Denver
1.33

allows per match

Midland-Odessa
2.00
Denver
1.67

finishing

Midland-Odessa+0.00on par
Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midland-Odessa ↓

Denver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Midland-Odessa or draw
58%
Midland-Odessa or Denver
76%
Draw or Denver
65%

Winning margin

Midland-Odessa wins by 2+
16%
Denver wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Midland-Odessa 1+ goals
78%
Midland-Odessa 2+ goals
44%
Midland-Odessa 3+ goals
19%
Denver 1+ goals
81%
Denver 2+ goals
50%
Denver 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Midland-Odessa (draw refunded)
45%
Denver (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midland-Odessa at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Denver away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midland-Odessa attack 1.33 + Denver defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Denver attack 1.33 + Midland-Odessa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Midland-Odessa scores more
35%
level
24%
Denver scores more
42%

Denver at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Denver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Midland-Odessa vs Denver

Denver beat Midland-Odessa 2-1 in US Open Cup on May 9, 2019.

The match was played at Grande Communications Stadium (Midland, Texas).