Middlesbrough W 2–1 Bradford City: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough W

2 – 1

Bradford City

11/13/2022

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Map Group UK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Middlesbrough W71%

×Draw15%

Bradford City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Middlesbrough WExpected goals in this matchBradford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

1.37

Middlesbrough W

3.10

Bradford City

1.37

Middlesbrough W creates 126% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.71

creates per match

1.17

1.57

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Middlesbrough W

2.71

Bradford City

1.17

allows per match

Middlesbrough W

1.57

Bradford City

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middlesbrough W+0.00on par

Bradford City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough W ↓

Bradford City →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Middlesbrough W or draw

86%

Middlesbrough W or Bradford City

85%

Draw or Bradford City

29%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough W wins by 2+

51%

Bradford City wins by 2+

Team goals

Middlesbrough W 1+ goals

95%

Middlesbrough W 2+ goals

81%

Middlesbrough W 3+ goals

58%

Bradford City 1+ goals

75%

Bradford City 2+ goals

40%

Bradford City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough W (draw refunded)

83%

Bradford City (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough W at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Bradford City away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough W attack 2.71 + Bradford City defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.10

Bradford City attack 1.17 + Middlesbrough W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Middlesbrough W scores more

71%

level

15%

Bradford City scores more

14%

Middlesbrough W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Middlesbrough W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff