Middlesbrough 1–2 Wolves: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Wolves

P. Bamford 90+4'

Ivan Cavaleiro 37'

Hélder Costa 32'

3/30/2018

Championship · Round 39Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Middlesbrough39%

×Draw27%

Wolves34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.19

Middlesbrough

1.29

Wolves

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

1.43

creates per match

1.53

0.84

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.43

Wolves

1.53

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.84

Wolves

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

66%

Middlesbrough or Wolves

73%

Draw or Wolves

61%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Wolves wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

37%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Wolves 1+ goals

70%

Wolves 2+ goals

33%

Wolves 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

53%

Wolves (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 37 matches

Wolves away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.43 + Wolves defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wolves attack 1.53 + Middlesbrough defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

39%

level

27%

Wolves scores more

34%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

Adama Traoré

Middlesbrough · F

8.7

Match Events

11'

Grant Leadbitter

32'

Hélder Costa↳ B. Douglas

37'

40'

54'

54'

56'

56'

58'

A. N'Diaye← Ivan Cavaleiro

61'

Ryan Shotton

63'

J. Howson← G. Leadbitter

63'

Léo Bonatini← B. Afobe

66'

Romain Saïss

70'

B. Assombalonga← A. Clayton

70'

M. Cranie← R. Shotton

71'

Matt Doherty

71'

Matt Doherty

73'

Ryan Bennett

84'

M. Gibbs-White← Hélder Costa

90'

Martin Cranie

90+4'

P. Bamford↳ Adama Traoré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughWolves

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots7

6Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots7

3On Target6

8Off Target1

6Blocked0

7Inside Box5

10Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

397Total Passes339

329Accurate Passes259

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards2