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Middlesbrough vs Tottenham — League #45 2026

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tottenham
Tottenham
A. Fletcher 50'
Lucas Moura 61'
1/5/2020League #45League #45 · 3rd RoundRiverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Middlesbrough29%
×Draw32%
Tottenham38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
0.83
Tottenham
1.00

Tottenham creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
0.33
Tottenham
0.67

allows per match

Middlesbrough
1.33
Tottenham
1.33

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par
Tottenham+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Tottenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
62%
Middlesbrough or Tottenham
68%
Draw or Tottenham
71%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
10%
Tottenham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
56%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
20%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
5%
Tottenham 1+ goals
63%
Tottenham 2+ goals
26%
Tottenham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
43%
Tottenham (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Tottenham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 0.33 + Tottenham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Tottenham attack 0.67 + Middlesbrough defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
29%
level
32%
Tottenham scores more
38%

Tottenham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
S. AurierTottenhamTottenham · M
7.7

Match Events

45'
Dele Alli
50'
A. Fletcher↳ G. Saville
56'
G. Lo Celso← R. Sessegnon
56'
E. Lamela← H. Winks
61'
Lucas Moura↳ S. Aurier
67'
M. Johnson← H. Coulson
69'
R. Gestede← P. Roberts
76'
L. Nmecha← A. Fletcher
85'
George Saville
85'
Érik Lamela

Possession

28%Middlesbrough

Shots

6Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

42%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughTottenham
Overview
28%Possession72%
6Total Shots14
4Corners14
7Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots14
4On Target4
1Off Target3
1Blocked7
3Inside Box3
3Outside Box11
Passing
28%Possession72%
251Total Passes627
154Accurate Passes519
61%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides3

League #45: Middlesbrough 1–1 Tottenham

Middlesbrough and Tottenham drew 1-1 in League #45 on January 5, 2020.

Goals: A. Fletcher (50'), Lucas Moura (61').

Tottenham controlled possession (72%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.