Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth — Championship 2024

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
Preview
15:00
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
12/19/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Riverside Stadium
Big match
56%
Middlesbrough
model favours
56%25%19%

Middlesbrough sit 5, Portsmouth 18 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Middlesbrough56%
×Draw25%
Portsmouth19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.60
Portsmouth
0.82

Middlesbrough creates 95% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.70
Portsmouth
0.89

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.75
Portsmouth
1.51

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.01on par
Portsmouth+0.25scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
81%
Middlesbrough or Portsmouth
75%
Draw or Portsmouth
44%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
30%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
80%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
47%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
22%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
56%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
20%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
74%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.70 + Portsmouth defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Portsmouth attack 0.89 + Middlesbrough defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
56%
level
25%
Portsmouth scores more
19%

Middlesbrough at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Middlesbrough
Attack-heavy
Portsmouth
Balanced
58%Possession47%
84%Pass accuracy72%
16.0Shots11.9
1.63xGBiggest gap1.20
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MiddlesbroughPortsmouth

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
3
Portsmouth
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
0–10–11–22–23–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Middlesbrough
LDDDW
Portsmouth
LWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth — Match Preview

Middlesbrough face Portsmouth on December 19, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Middlesbrough host Portsmouth at Riverside Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.