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Middlesbrough vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
12/13/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Middlesbrough53%
×Draw25%
Hull City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.63
Hull City
0.94

Middlesbrough creates 73% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 45 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.70
Hull City
1.12

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.75
Hull City
1.55

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.01on par
Hull City-0.01on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
78%
Middlesbrough or Hull City
75%
Draw or Hull City
47%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
29%
Hull City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
80%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
48%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
22%
Hull City 1+ goals
61%
Hull City 2+ goals
24%
Hull City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
71%
Hull City (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.70 + Hull City defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hull City attack 1.12 + Middlesbrough defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
53%
level
25%
Hull City scores more
22%

Middlesbrough at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Hull City

Hull City beat Middlesbrough 2-1 in Championship on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.