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Middlesbrough vs Derby — Championship 2025

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
Preview
15:00
Derby
Derby
12/5/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19Riverside Stadium
47%
Middlesbrough
model favours
47%26%27%
1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Middlesbrough47%
×Draw26%
Derby27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.48
Derby
1.06

Middlesbrough creates 40% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.37
Derby
1.26

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.86
Derby
1.59

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
73%
Middlesbrough or Derby
74%
Draw or Derby
53%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
23%
Derby wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
77%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
43%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
19%
Derby 1+ goals
65%
Derby 2+ goals
29%
Derby 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
63%
Derby (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.86 · 35 matches

Derby away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Derby defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Derby attack 1.26 + Middlesbrough defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
47%
level
26%
Derby scores more
27%

Middlesbrough at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Middlesbrough
LDDDW
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Middlesbrough host Derby

December 5, 2026: Middlesbrough take on Derby in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Middlesbrough host Derby at Riverside Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.