Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Derby

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

K. Jackson 14'

8/17/2024

Championship · Round 2Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Derby35%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.29

Derby

1.22

Middlesbrough

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

1.22

creates per match

1.56

1.01

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Derby

1.22

Middlesbrough

1.56

allows per match

Derby

1.01

Middlesbrough

1.22

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Derby+0.06on par

Middlesbrough-0.09on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Derby or draw

62%

Derby or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

65%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

15%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

70%

Derby 2+ goals

34%

Derby 3+ goals

12%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

37%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

48%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 39 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Middlesbrough defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Middlesbrough attack 1.56 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Derby scores more

35%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

38%

Middlesbrough at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

J. Vickers

Derby · G

8.3

Match Events

14'

K. Jackson

20'

S. Bradley← E. Cashin

25'

R. Nyambe← K. Wilson

40'

Nathaniel Méndez-Laing

42'

Emmanuel Latte Lath

62'

E. Adams← K. Goudmijn

67'

Callum Elder

68'

M. Hamilton← I. Jones

68'

D. Barlaser← A. Morris

76'

C. Forsyth← D. Ozoh

76'

L. Thompson← J. Collins

76'

T. Barkhuizen← N. Mendez-Laing

78'

T. Conway← F. Azaz

90+2'

Kayden Jackson

90'

J. Coburn← H. Hackney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyMiddlesbrough

Overview

29%Possession71%

3Total Shots20

1.05Expected Goals (xG)1.55

3Corners8

13Fouls5

Shots

3Total Shots20

2On Target4

0Off Target11

1Blocked5

3Inside Box11

0Outside Box9

Passing

29%Possession71%

233Total Passes569

160Accurate Passes500

69%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

0.05Goals Prevented0.05

Discipline

13Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2