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Middlesbrough vs Derby — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Derby
Derby
P. McNair 67' (pen)
L. Wing 16'
D. Holmes 90+1'
J. Knight 54'
1/11/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Middlesbrough47%
×Draw27%
Derby26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.43
Derby
0.98

Middlesbrough creates 46% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.54
Derby
1.01

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.96
Derby
1.32

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.15scores less
Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
74%
Middlesbrough or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
53%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
23%
Derby wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
76%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
42%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
17%
Derby 1+ goals
62%
Derby 2+ goals
26%
Derby 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
65%
Derby (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.54 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Derby attack 1.01 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
47%
level
27%
Derby scores more
26%

Middlesbrough at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
P. McNairMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · D
7.5

Match Events

16'
L. Wing↳ M. Tavernier
39'
Matthew Clarke
44'
Martyn Waghorn
54'
J. Knight↳ T. Lawrence
67'
P. McNairPenalty
79'
Hayden Coulson
80'
L. Nmecha← P. Roberts
83'
C. Martin← J. Knight
86'
M. Whittaker← T. Lawrence
90'
R. Gestede← A. Fletcher
90+1'
D. Holmes

Possession

46%Middlesbrough

Shots

15Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

49%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughDerby
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots7
5Corners2
11Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots7
5On Target3
8Off Target1
2Blocked3
6Inside Box2
9Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
381Total Passes451
283Accurate Passes343
74%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Derby

Middlesbrough and Derby drew 2-2 in Championship on January 11, 2020.

Goals: L. Wing (16'), J. Knight (54'), P. McNair (67' pen), D. Holmes (90+1').

Derby controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.