Middlesbrough 2–0 Coventry: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coventry

D. Spence 90+5'

B. Assombalonga 81'

10/27/2020

Championship · Round 8Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Middlesbrough41%

×Draw26%

Coventry32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.20

Middlesbrough

1.39

Coventry

1.20

Middlesbrough creates 16% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 58 away

1.55

creates per match

1.44

0.96

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.55

Coventry

1.44

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.96

Coventry

1.22

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.14scores less

Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

68%

Middlesbrough or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

59%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

19%

Coventry wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

75%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

40%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

16%

Coventry 1+ goals

70%

Coventry 2+ goals

34%

Coventry 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

56%

Coventry (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 66 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.55 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Coventry attack 1.44 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

41%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

32%

Middlesbrough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Sam Morsy

Middlesbrough · M

7.6

Match Events

67'

H. Coulson← M. Tavernier

68'

M. Browne← P. Roberts

70'

F. Dabo← R. Giles

78'

T. Walker← J. Shipley

79'

C. O'Hare← J. Allen

81'

B. Assombalonga↳ Sam Morsy

90'

90'

90'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughCoventry

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots3

1Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots3

5On Target1

7Off Target1

5Blocked1

10Inside Box1

7Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

427Total Passes378

312Accurate Passes241

73%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0