Coventry 3–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

2/16/2026

Championship · Round 32Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Coventry42%

×Draw25%

Middlesbrough33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.33

Coventry

1.52

Middlesbrough

1.33

Coventry creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 24 away

1.76

creates per match

1.49

1.18

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Coventry

1.76

Middlesbrough

1.49

allows per match

Coventry

1.18

Middlesbrough

1.28

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Coventry+0.31scores more

Middlesbrough-0.07on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

67%

Coventry or Middlesbrough

75%

Draw or Middlesbrough

58%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

21%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

78%

Coventry 2+ goals

45%

Coventry 3+ goals

20%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

74%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

38%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

56%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 14 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.28 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.76 + Middlesbrough defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Middlesbrough attack 1.49 + Coventry defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Coventry scores more

42%

level

25%

Middlesbrough scores more

33%

Coventry at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff