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Middlesbrough vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
Preview
14:00
Cardiff
Cardiff
10/17/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Riverside Stadium
68%
Middlesbrough
model favours
68%18%14%

Middlesbrough and Cardiff have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Middlesbrough68%
×Draw18%
Cardiff14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
2.34
Cardiff
0.94

Middlesbrough creates 149% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 3 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.35
Cardiff
1.00

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.87
Cardiff
3.33

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
86%
Middlesbrough or Cardiff
82%
Draw or Cardiff
32%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
45%
Cardiff wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
90%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
67%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
41%
Cardiff 1+ goals
61%
Cardiff 2+ goals
24%
Cardiff 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
83%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.35 + Cardiff defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.34

Cardiff attack 1.00 + Middlesbrough defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
68%
level
18%
Cardiff scores more
14%

Middlesbrough at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Middlesbrough
LDDDW
Cardiff
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff — Match Preview

Middlesbrough face Cardiff on October 17, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Middlesbrough host Cardiff at Riverside Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.