Middlesbrough 1–1 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cardiff

E. Latte Lath 11'

C. Chambers 21'

1/4/2025

Championship · Round 26Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Middlesbrough50%

×Draw26%

Cardiff24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.94

Middlesbrough

1.50

Cardiff

0.94

Middlesbrough creates 60% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 61 away

1.43

creates per match

1.03

0.84

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.43

Cardiff

1.03

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.84

Cardiff

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

76%

Middlesbrough or Cardiff

74%

Draw or Cardiff

50%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

25%

Cardiff wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

78%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

44%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

19%

Cardiff 1+ goals

61%

Cardiff 2+ goals

24%

Cardiff 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

68%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 37 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.43 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Middlesbrough defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

50%

level

26%

Cardiff scores more

24%

Middlesbrough at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Barlaser

Middlesbrough · M

7.7

Match Events

11'

E. Latte Lath↳ B. Doak

21'

C. Chambers

30'

Callum O'Dowda

65'

C. Willock← O. Tanner

67'

I. Jones← D. Burgzorg

75'

75'

76'

79'

79'

80'

83'

J. Ralls← A. Robertson

84'

L. Engel← Neto Borges

89'

Daniel Barlaser

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughCardiff

Overview

75%Possession25%

9Total Shots8

0.77Expected Goals (xG)0.55

4Corners4

9Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target2

2Off Target3

4Blocked3

7Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

75%Possession25%

687Total Passes228

616Accurate Passes141

90%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.26Goals Prevented0.26

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

7Offsides3