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Middlesbrough vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
B. Assombalonga 12'
8/11/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Middlesbrough48%
×Draw27%
Birmingham25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.42
Birmingham
0.96

Middlesbrough creates 48% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 37 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.54
Birmingham
0.96

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.96
Birmingham
1.30

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.15scores less
Birmingham-0.18scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
75%
Middlesbrough or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
52%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
23%
Birmingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
76%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
41%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
17%
Birmingham 1+ goals
62%
Birmingham 2+ goals
25%
Birmingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
65%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.54 + Birmingham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Birmingham attack 0.96 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
48%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
25%

Middlesbrough at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
D. RandolphMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · G
8.4

Match Events

12'
B. Assombalonga↳ J. Howson
25'
Cheikh N'Doye
70'
O. Bogle← Che Adams
76'
C. Mahoney← J. Maghoma
76'
V. Solomon-Otabor← Jota Peleteiro
77'
M. Tavernier← L. Wing
81'
A. Fletcher← B. Assombalonga
83'
Craig Gardner
89'
P. McNair← M. Braithwaite

Possession

52%Middlesbrough

Shots

10Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

53%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughBirmingham
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots11
3Corners9
9Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots11
2On Target4
5Off Target1
3Blocked6
8Inside Box5
2Outside Box6
Passing
52%Possession48%
362Total Passes338
253Accurate Passes213
70%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Birmingham

Middlesbrough beat Birmingham 1-0 in Championship on August 11, 2018.

Goals: B. Assombalonga (12').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.