Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Birmingham vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
3/2/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Birmingham44%
×Draw25%
Middlesbrough31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.53
Middlesbrough
1.25

Birmingham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 24 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.78
Middlesbrough
1.49

allows per match

Birmingham
1.01
Middlesbrough
1.28

finishing

Birmingham-0.05on par
Middlesbrough-0.07on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
69%
Birmingham or Middlesbrough
75%
Draw or Middlesbrough
56%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
22%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
78%
Birmingham 2+ goals
45%
Birmingham 3+ goals
20%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
71%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
36%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
58%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.28 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.78 + Middlesbrough defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.53

Middlesbrough attack 1.49 + Birmingham defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Birmingham scores more
44%
level
25%
Middlesbrough scores more
31%

Birmingham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Birmingham 1–3 Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough beat Birmingham 3-1 in Championship on March 2, 2026.

The match was played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park in Birmingham.