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Middelfart vs Naestved — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Naestved
Naestved
11/16/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 16Middelfart Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Middelfart43%
×Draw26%
Naestved31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.45
Naestved
1.19

Middelfart creates 22% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 43 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
Naestved
1.19

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
Naestved
1.40

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Naestved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
69%
Middelfart or Naestved
74%
Draw or Naestved
57%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
21%
Naestved wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
77%
Middelfart 2+ goals
42%
Middelfart 3+ goals
18%
Naestved 1+ goals
70%
Naestved 2+ goals
33%
Naestved 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
58%
Naestved (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + Naestved defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Naestved attack 1.19 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Middelfart scores more
43%
level
26%
Naestved scores more
31%

Middelfart at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Middelfart 0–1 Naestved

Naestved beat Middelfart 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Middelfart Stadion in Middelfart.