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Middelfart vs Holstebro — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
6 – 1
Holstebro
Holstebro
7/16/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Middelfart74%
×Draw14%
Holstebro11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
2.93
Holstebro
1.08

Middelfart creates 171% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Middelfart
2.36
Holstebro
0.88

allows per match

Middelfart
1.29
Holstebro
3.50

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Holstebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
89%
Middelfart or Holstebro
86%
Draw or Holstebro
26%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
54%
Holstebro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
94%
Middelfart 2+ goals
78%
Middelfart 3+ goals
55%
Holstebro 1+ goals
66%
Holstebro 2+ goals
29%
Holstebro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
87%
Holstebro (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Holstebro away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 2.36 + Holstebro defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.93

Holstebro attack 0.88 + Middelfart defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Middelfart scores more
74%
level
14%
Holstebro scores more
11%

Middelfart at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Middelfart vs Holstebro

Middelfart beat Holstebro 6-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 16, 2022.