Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Middelfart vs HIK — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HIK
HIK
4/12/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 22Middelfart Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Middelfart49%
×Draw24%
HIK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.67
HIK
1.16

Middelfart creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 82 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
HIK
1.11

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
HIK
1.83

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
73%
Middelfart or HIK
76%
Draw or HIK
51%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
26%
HIK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
81%
Middelfart 2+ goals
50%
Middelfart 3+ goals
23%
HIK 1+ goals
69%
HIK 2+ goals
32%
HIK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
65%
HIK (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

HIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + HIK defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

HIK attack 1.11 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Middelfart scores more
49%
level
24%
HIK scores more
27%

Middelfart at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Middelfart 2–1 HIK

Middelfart beat HIK 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Middelfart Stadion in Middelfart.