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Middelfart vs Fremad Amager — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
10/26/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 13Middelfart Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Middelfart44%
×Draw26%
Fremad Amager30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.49
Fremad Amager
1.19

Middelfart creates 25% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 48 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
Fremad Amager
1.17

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
Fremad Amager
1.48

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Fremad Amager →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
70%
Middelfart or Fremad Amager
74%
Draw or Fremad Amager
56%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
22%
Fremad Amager wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
77%
Middelfart 2+ goals
44%
Middelfart 3+ goals
19%
Fremad Amager 1+ goals
70%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
33%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
59%
Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.49

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Middelfart scores more
44%
level
26%
Fremad Amager scores more
30%

Middelfart at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Middelfart vs Fremad Amager

Middelfart beat Fremad Amager 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Middelfart Stadion in Middelfart.