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Middelfart vs AB Copenhagen — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
3/15/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 18MG & BK.s anlæg - kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Middelfart39%
×Draw25%
AB Copenhagen36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.44
AB Copenhagen
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
AB Copenhagen
1.54

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
AB Copenhagen
1.39

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

AB Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
64%
Middelfart or AB Copenhagen
75%
Draw or AB Copenhagen
61%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
18%
AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
76%
Middelfart 2+ goals
42%
Middelfart 3+ goals
18%
AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
75%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
40%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
52%
AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

AB Copenhagen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

AB Copenhagen attack 1.54 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Middelfart scores more
39%
level
25%
AB Copenhagen scores more
36%

Middelfart at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Middelfart vs AB Copenhagen

AB Copenhagen beat Middelfart 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at MG & BK.s anlæg - kunstgræsbane in Middelfart.