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Mídas vs SR — Cup 2019

Mídas
Mídas
FT
0 – 4
SR
SR
H. Hjartarson 86', 83'
J. K. Solmundarson 69'
B. Takefusa 63'
6/12/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundVíkingsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mídas48%
×Draw18%
SR34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mídas
2.98
SR
2.50

Mídas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mídas
1.20
SR
1.00

allows per match

Mídas
4.00
SR
4.75

finishing

Mídas+0.00on par
SR+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mídas ↓

SR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–24%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Mídas or draw
66%
Mídas or SR
82%
Draw or SR
52%

Winning margin

Mídas wins by 2+
31%
SR wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mídas 1+ goals
95%
Mídas 2+ goals
79%
Mídas 3+ goals
56%
SR 1+ goals
92%
SR 2+ goals
71%
SR 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Mídas (draw refunded)
59%
SR (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mídas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

SR away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mídas attack 1.20 + SR defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 2.98

SR attack 1.00 + Mídas defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mídas scores more
48%
level
18%
SR scores more
34%

Mídas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mídas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
H. Arnarson
26'
H. Arnarson
63'
B. Takefusa
69'
J. K. Solmundarson
83'
H. Hjartarson
86'
H. Hjartarson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mídas vs SR

SR beat Mídas 4-0 in Cup on June 12, 2020.

Goals: B. Takefusa (63'), J. K. Solmundarson (69'), H. Hjartarson (83', 86').

The match was played at Víkingsvöllur in Reykjavík.