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Mídas vs RB — Cup 2019

Mídas
Mídas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
RB
RB
F. Gissurarson 45'
R. Recoe 81'
A. Colaneri 78'
H. Crnac 72'
4/4/2024CupCup · 1st RoundVíkingsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mídas29%
×Draw18%
RB52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mídas
2.10
RB
2.80

RB creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mídas
1.20
RB
1.60

allows per match

Mídas
4.00
RB
3.00

finishing

Mídas+0.00on par
RB+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mídas ↓

RB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Mídas or draw
48%
Mídas or RB
82%
Draw or RB
71%

Winning margin

Mídas wins by 2+
15%
RB wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Mídas 1+ goals
88%
Mídas 2+ goals
62%
Mídas 3+ goals
35%
RB 1+ goals
94%
RB 2+ goals
76%
RB 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Mídas (draw refunded)
36%
RB (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mídas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

RB away — creates 1.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mídas attack 1.20 + RB defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

RB attack 1.60 + Mídas defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mídas scores more
29%
level
18%
RB scores more
52%

RB at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "RB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
F. Gissurarson
72'
H. Crnac
78'
A. Colaneri
81'
R. Recoe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mídas 1 – 3 RB

RB beat Mídas 3-1 in Cup on April 4, 2024.

Goals: F. Gissurarson (45'), H. Crnac (72'), A. Colaneri (78'), R. Recoe (81').

The match was played at Víkingsvöllur in Reykjavík.