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Mídas vs Augnablik — Cup 2019

Mídas
Mídas
FT
0 – 12
Augnablik
Augnablik
4/23/2021CupCup · 1st RoundVíkingsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mídas7%
×Draw10%
Augnablik83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mídas
1.27
Augnablik
4.08

Augnablik creates 221% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Mídas
1.20
Augnablik
4.17

allows per match

Mídas
4.00
Augnablik
1.33

finishing

Mídas+0.00on par
Augnablik+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mídas ↓

Augnablik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Mídas or draw
17%
Mídas or Augnablik
90%
Draw or Augnablik
93%

Winning margin

Mídas wins by 2+
3%
Augnablik wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Mídas 1+ goals
72%
Mídas 2+ goals
36%
Mídas 3+ goals
14%
Augnablik 1+ goals
98%
Augnablik 2+ goals
90%
Augnablik 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

Mídas (draw refunded)
8%
Augnablik (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mídas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

Augnablik away — creates 4.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mídas attack 1.20 + Augnablik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Augnablik attack 4.17 + Mídas defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Mídas scores more
7%
level
10%
Augnablik scores more
83%

Augnablik at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Augnablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mídas vs Augnablik

Augnablik beat Mídas 12-0 in Cup on April 23, 2021.

The match was played at Víkingsvöllur in Reykjavík.