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Mid-Ulster W vs Crusaders W — Premiership Women 2024

Mid-Ulster W
Mid-Ulster W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Crusaders W
Crusaders W
8/16/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 11Stangmore Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mid-Ulster W13%
×Draw15%
Crusaders W72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mid-Ulster W
1.26
Crusaders W
3.05

Crusaders W creates 142% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mid-Ulster W
0.63
Crusaders W
1.60

allows per match

Mid-Ulster W
4.50
Crusaders W
1.90

finishing

Mid-Ulster W+0.00on par
Crusaders W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mid-Ulster W ↓

Crusaders W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Mid-Ulster W or draw
28%
Mid-Ulster W or Crusaders W
85%
Draw or Crusaders W
87%

Winning margin

Mid-Ulster W wins by 2+
5%
Crusaders W wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Mid-Ulster W 1+ goals
72%
Mid-Ulster W 2+ goals
36%
Mid-Ulster W 3+ goals
13%
Crusaders W 1+ goals
95%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
80%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Mid-Ulster W (draw refunded)
15%
Crusaders W (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mid-Ulster W at home — creates 0.63, concedes 4.50 · 8 matches

Crusaders W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mid-Ulster W attack 0.63 + Crusaders W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.26

Crusaders W attack 1.60 + Mid-Ulster W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Mid-Ulster W scores more
13%
level
15%
Crusaders W scores more
72%

Crusaders W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Crusaders W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Mid-Ulster W 0–0 Crusaders W

Mid-Ulster W and Crusaders W drew 0-0 in Premiership Women on August 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stangmore Park in Dungannon.