Miami 0–1 Kings Hammer Sun City: Result & Stats

Miami

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kings Hammer Sun City

6/28/2025

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 17Tropical Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Miami10%

×Draw14%

Kings Hammer Sun City76%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiamiExpected goals in this matchKings Hammer Sun City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.92

Miami

1.00

Kings Hammer Sun City

2.92

Kings Hammer Sun City creates 192% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

0.50

creates per match

1.00

4.83

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Miami

0.50

Kings Hammer Sun City

1.00

allows per match

Miami

4.83

Kings Hammer Sun City

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miami+0.00on par

Kings Hammer Sun City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miami ↓

Kings Hammer Sun City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–29%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Miami or draw

24%

Miami or Kings Hammer Sun City

86%

Draw or Kings Hammer Sun City

90%

Winning margin

Miami wins by 2+

3%

Kings Hammer Sun City wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Miami 1+ goals

63%

Miami 2+ goals

26%

Miami 3+ goals

8%

Kings Hammer Sun City 1+ goals

94%

Kings Hammer Sun City 2+ goals

78%

Kings Hammer Sun City 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Miami (draw refunded)

12%

Kings Hammer Sun City (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miami at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

Kings Hammer Sun City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miami attack 0.50 + Kings Hammer Sun City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kings Hammer Sun City attack 1.00 + Miami defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Miami scores more

10%

level

14%

Kings Hammer Sun City scores more

76%

Kings Hammer Sun City at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Kings Hammer Sun City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff