Vitesse 0–1 Ajax: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Vitesse

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ajax

D. Klaassen 26'

2/19/2017

Eredivisie · Round 23GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vitesse42%

×Draw25%

Ajax33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchAjax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.32

Vitesse

1.51

Ajax

1.32

Vitesse creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 31 away

1.39

creates per match

1.38

1.26

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Vitesse

1.39

Ajax

1.38

allows per match

Vitesse

1.26

Ajax

1.64

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Vitesse-0.39scores less

Ajax+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

67%

Vitesse or Ajax

75%

Draw or Ajax

58%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

20%

Ajax wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

78%

Vitesse 2+ goals

44%

Vitesse 3+ goals

19%

Ajax 1+ goals

73%

Ajax 2+ goals

38%

Ajax 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

56%

Ajax (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.26 · 5 matches

Ajax away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.64 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.39 + Ajax defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ajax attack 1.38 + Vitesse defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vitesse scores more

42%

level

25%

Ajax scores more

33%

Vitesse at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Veltman

Ajax · D

7.8

Match Events

26'

D. Klaassen↳ A. Younes

36'

Nick Viergever

54'

Kevin Diks

66'

J. Kluivert← B. Traoré

67'

Justin Kluivert

74'

N. Foor← A. Tighadouini

83'

A. Büttner← L. Faye

84'

M. Ali← M. Nakamba

84'

D. van de Beek← H. Ziyech

88'

Matthew Miazga

89'

M. Cassierra← K. Dolberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitesseAjax

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots11

5Corners5

14Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots11

5On Target6

5Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

379Total Passes447

264Accurate Passes347

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

Eredivisie: Vitesse 0–1 Ajax

Ajax beat Vitesse 1-0 in Eredivisie on February 19, 2017.

Goals: D. Klaassen (26').

Ajax controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.

Vitesse vs Ajax — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eredivisie: Vitesse 0–1 Ajax